It's the most anticipated sporting event of the year and it's accompanied by the most anticipated blog post here at the Brady Blog. The Super Bowl is days away, but tonight the Super Bowl Tale of the Tape is here. We go position by position and see which team, the Kansas City Chiefs or Tampa Bay Buccaneers will come out victorious this Sunday. Let's break it down.
Quarterback: How do you judge this match up, yes Patrick Mahomes is probably the best QB in the league right now, but Tom Brady is the best QB in the league ever. I almost gave the edge to Kansas City, but you can't ever count Brady out, ever. You also can't give the advantage to Tampa because Mahomes is on a trajectory never seen before. So instead we push. Brady made a few to many mistakes vs Green Bay, but Mahomes wasn't crazy amazing until Buffalo. Excellent quarterback battle that I'm excited for, the GOAT vs The Kid. Advantage: Push
Running Back: Tampa has the advantage RB with Ronald Jones and a fresh/resurgent Leonard Fournette. The Chiefs will be welcoming back Clyde Edwards-Helaire who played in the AFC Championship game but wasn't all the way healthy. They also have Darrel Williams and Le'veon Bell, but the Chiefs backs don't produce like the Bucs backs. Fournette in 3 playoff games has 211 yards rushing, 102 yards receiving and 3 touchdowns. Those numbers are more than half of his production from the regular season. The Bucs have had to use him since Jones has been hampered with a quad injury, but has played the last 2 games. I don't think either team wants to lean on their running game, but if they have to Tampa will have an easier time using clock with theirs. Advantage: Buccaneers
Wide Receivers: Tyreek Hill will be the best playmaker on the field on Sunday, but the Tampa quartet of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Scotty Miller, and Antonio Brown are more lethal than the group of Chiefs receivers after Hill. The Chiefs should have Sammy Watkins full go, plus Mecole Hardman, who made a big play in the AFC Championship game. I don't envy either secondary because trying to cover these guys, plus the dudes next is going to be impossible. If Evans and Godwin can stay synced up with Tom Brady I see a long night for the Chiefs defense. Advantage: Buccaneers
Tight Ends: Travis Kelce is either the best of 2nd best TE in the game, I myself am partial to George Kittle, but Kelce has done it longer and has the numbers. On the other side Tampa has Gronk, who is arguably the best ever at the position, but he isn't 2012 Gronk. Cameron Brate is also a target for Brady, but he doesn't measure up to Kelce. Kelce put up 1400 yards and 11 TDs this year, both career highs. If Kansas City keeps him active in the offense, which they will, he will be the difference if they win or lose. He can control the middle of the field, move the sticks and is always there when Mahomes needs him. He's just a match up nightmare, I'm not sure what Tampa does to stop him. Advantage: Chiefs
Offensive Line: This would be close but Kansas City is limping into this game, they are without both starting tackles. Meanwhile the Bucs got the steal of the draft in Tristan Wirfs at RT, the rookie has been stone walling defensive ends all year. The entire line has kept Brady clean and upright all season. That is much more important for them than it is for KC, Mahomes can move and make his own space, Brady can't as much. He's 43 and scrambling or throwing on the run aren't in he repertoire anymore. If either line can get a push running the ball, that could also be a difference. Advantage: Buccaneers
Defensive Line: Tampa Bay has a stout defensive line, Jason Pierre-Paul and Ndamukong Suh are both long in the tooth but make plays. Vita Vea and Shaq Barrett help round out the line that sacked Aaron Rodgers 5 times in the NFC Championship game. The Chiefs have a bunch of guys I've never heard of, now I don't watch a lot of football, but these guys don't jump out to me. The Chiefs were 19th in the NFL with 32 sacks where the Bucs were tied for 4th with 48. From what little I've seen of the Chiefs they don't create a lot of pressure where the Buccaneers can get it with their 4 lineman. Advantage: Buccaneers
Linebackers: Kansas City usually only plays with 2 linebackers, but they rotate them based on situations. They use Anthony Hitchens and Damien Wilson the most, but Ben Niemann and Willie Gay also play a lot. They work a lot in coverage and have to get sideline to sideline. The Buccaneers have Levonte David and Devin White who wreck shop. White had 15 tackles vs Green Bay. The problem for Tampa will be covering Travis Kelce with these Linebackers, do they have the size and quickness to cover? I think Andy Reid exploits the match up. Advantage: Chiefs
Secondary: Tampa Bay missed both safeties in the NFC championship game for a time. Antoine Winfield Jr. is supposed to play in the Super Bowl, they will need him to make plays. The kid has a nose for the ball. The Kansas City safeties of the Honey Badger and Daniel Sorenson are always in the mix. Sorenson is often another linebacker it seems. At corner, it's the hardest position to play in the NFL and neither team has the shutdown corner that some teams have. With the weapons these offenses employ, whatever secondary can tackle or create a turnover will be a difference maker. The Kansas City secondary seems healthier and have more experience. Advantage: Chiefs.
Special Teams: Jaydon Mickens for Tampa was a huge game changer vs Green Bay he set the Bucs up with great field position multiple times, and in key situations. BUT he ain't Tyreek, and Tyreek can flip a field in a minute. Advantage: Chiefs.
Coach: Both these coaches have rings, Bruce Arians as a coordinator and Andy Reid got his last year as a head coach. I love Bruce Arians but with Mahomes Andy Reid is on another level. He's shaken the stigma of being a poor big game coach. He's one of the best regular season coaches ever and now he's cementing his legacy as an offensive genius. Advantage: Chiefs
Final Score: Chiefs 5 Buccaneers 4 I think that's how the game goes as well. I'll predict 45-42 Kansas City. I will be rooting for Tom Brady obviously but I think the Chiefs win. I hope we have a good game, follow me on twitter @derekbredeson during the game for my thoughts, and I'll have a reaction post next week.
