It is probably my oldest reoccurring segment of the blog, I've logged on in the past just to do this post. It's my Tale of the Tape, where we go position by position and determine who the winner of the Super Bowl will be, there is usually a catch though, as I often predict against the team with the advantage. This year I haven't watched a game of the NFL so let's see how I do. Here is how the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers stack up.
Quarterback: The most important position on the field is the QB, this game features 2 of the better ones in the league. Patrick Mahomes won the MVP a season ago and even though he threw for 1,000 less yards and just above half his TD's this year he still put up solid numbers. He also cut his interceptions in more than half this season. He did miss 2 games due to injury this season but he still put up solid numbers and lead the Chiefs offense. Jimmy Garoppolo recovered from last year's injuries, when he only played 3 games, started all 16 games this season and put up some great numbers. Nearly 4,000 yards and 27 TDs, nothing to sniff at, a few less yards than Mahomes and 1 more TD. In the playoffs though the 49ers have leaned heavily on the run game and Jimmy G hasn't had to be the difference maker. That said I gotta give the nod to the former MVP, Advantage Chiefs.
Running Back: The 49ers have a strong backfield led by Tevin Coleman in the divisional round vs Minnesota and Raheem Mostert in the NFC Championship game vs Green Bay. They can also lean on Matt Breida for carries. The Chiefs have Damien Williams to line up next to Mahomes, but they don't lean on him much for rushing yards, vs Tennessee he had 45 rushing yards and 44 receiving yards, in fact Mahomes out rushed him in the game. Running the ball isn't the Chiefs MO, but the 49ers have ran the ball all the way to Miami, Advantage 49ers.
Wide Receiver: The Chiefs roll with a great group of receiving targets, lead by Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins. Watkins has bloomed in Kansas City and Hill has been a playmaker since entering the league. He does have some off the field issues but he's overcome those and become a huge piece for the Chiefs success. The 49ers as said above don't lean on the receiving corp as much, but they will get the ball to 3 different receivers in Emmanuel Sanders, Deebo Samuel, and Kendrick Bourne. They all can contribute but aren't the threats that Hill and Watkins are, Advantage Chiefs.
Tight End: The 2 guys are so damn good they need their own segment. Travis Kelce and George Kittle are the 2 best tight ends in football. They can do everything that is required of them, they run great routes, catch everything, and block like lineman. They will be match-up nightmares for the defensive coordinators on each team. Stopping the tight ends will be a major key, as Kelce is a great target on 3rd down and Kittle can strike anytime. I don't think I can pick a winner here, Advantage Push.
Offensive Line: When looking at the O-line you have to think about what they do best, obviously the 49ers with Joe Staley and his group, they run you over. The Chiefs with Eric Fisher and his posse, protect Mahomes well. So this will come down to who can do their job, and I think the 49ers line is more equipped and have done the more impressive job in the playoffs, Advantage 49ers.
Defensive Line: The 49ers built an amazing young line. The team tied for 5th in sacks in the NFL this season with 48, where the Chiefs came in with 45. For the 49ers, getting to and bringing Mahomes down will be the most important part, where the Chiefs will have to keep gap integrity, and try to slow down the running back for the linebackers to fill. When defending the zone scheme, the defensive lineman have to try to beat the o-lineman to his spot and try to avoid being cut. I think both groups have their work cut out for them, Advantage 49ers.
Linebackers: Much like the defensive line the linebackers will each have different tasks. For the Chiefs they will have to fill the gaps and not let the San Francisco running backs hit the 3rd level. If they can do that, plus get a pass rush off the blitz when Jimmy G does throw they can be the difference makers. For the 49ers, they will have to play coverage, and try to shutdown Travis Kelce on 3rd down will be the biggest hurdle for them. They play a lot of zone so the LBs getting their drops and tackling any crossing routes will be huge, Advantage Chiefs (only because Anthony Hitchens)
Secondary: The Chiefs passing game will put the pressure on the 49ers secondary, and will force them to make plays. The 49ers play cover 4 and cover 3 so they will protect the deep routes. The 49ers only created 12 interceptions this year, so I'm not sure they'll force Mahomes into many bad passes. The Chiefs secondary were 5th in the league with 16 interceptions, so they do get after it. Their main focus will have to be discipline in the run game and not be fooled by play action. The 49ers have experience in Richard Scherman, but I still think the play making of Kansas City says, Advantage: Chiefs.
Special Teams: With Tyreek Hill returning kicks I think the edge goes to Kansas City, both teams will have to use punters to flip the field, and kicking will only matter if the conditions aren't favorable. This is one where not watching either team play really doesn't help, but again Tyreek Hill is electric, Advantage Chiefs.
Coach: These two coaches are both looking for Super Bowl redemption. Andy Reid could be "the greatest coach without a Super Bowl win." He is a great regular season coach but often stumbles in the playoffs. Kyle Shannahan was the offensive coordinator for the Falcons when they blew the 28-3 lead vs the Patriots. He called the pass play on 2nd and 11 that doomed the Falcons. So neither coach has a reputation of being clutch, and where Andy Reid has the longevity, Kyle Shannahan has the pedigree and has been around Super Bowls most of his life. When it comes to clock management and the game is close Reid has a reputation of turtleing, Advantage 49ers.
Final Score Chiefs 5 49ers 4, so the Chiefs win this game on paper, and I think they win on the field as well, my prediction Kansas City 38 San Francisco 28. I think Andy Reid pushes the right buttons and his past of bumbling late game situations doesn't haunt him. I for one have no rooting interest and just hope for a better game than last year. Let me know how wrong I am on twitter @derekbredeson.
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