2020 NASCAR Vision

  Sunday marks the beginning of another season of NASCAR Cup Series racing. Another season of changes as NASCAR has moved away from the series presenting sponsor, they enter the final season of this car style, and they made a few subtle changes to the car package for the short track racing that was ruined last season by the lower horsepower. This season could look a lot like last year, tonight I'm going to give a few bold predictions for how I think 2020 will look.

A mid-tier team will make the final 8 of the Chase. Let's first get a look at the upper class of Cup teams, you have Hendrick, Penske, Stewart-Haas, and Gibbs. Those 5 teams have won every cup championship, but 1 since 2005 (Martin Truex Jr. in 2017). In a past life Rousch was elite but they are now the 3rd Ford team so they are solely in the middle class. The middle class has many great to good drivers, Kyle Larson and Kurt Busch at Ganassi, Ryan Newman at Rousch, Matt Dibenendetto at Wood Bros. Austin Dillon at Childress, and Ricky Stenhouse at JTG Daughtery. All of those guys are formidable in equal equipment, especially Larson and Busch. That said the way the playoffs work out this year with 3 short track races in the first round and Talladega in the 2nd round, I see someone like Stenhouse or Busch getting through both those rounds. Both drivers are Bristol aces and both can compete on a plate track like Dega. If they take a final 8 spot that will be so interesting as it means only 1 or 2 from the elite teams will be there. Predicting who won't be there is almost impossible but the way round 2 shapes up I think it could be a couple Gibbs drivers.

Jimmie Johnson won't win a race. Not the boldest prediction since JJ has struggled recently, but this is his retirement season and the last few years the retiring drivers have fared decently. Jeff Gordon famously won at Martinsville to give himself a chance at championship in his swan song. My thing with Jimmie though is, he hasn't had the speed and I question his team. Hendrick is strong with Chase Elliot but the 48 has seemed like the 3rd or even 4th car in recent years. I don't see where the 48 will be faster than the Stewart-Haas or Gibbs cars. He may use strategy to steal a win but it seems like the Penske teams usually have 3 different strategies in a race to disrupt that. I've grown to respect Jimmie the last few years but I don't see him having that signature moment this year.

Joe Gibbs Racing will break their record for wins in a season. In 2019 JGR set a record for wins by a team, the 4 cars combined to win 19 races and that was with the 20 or Erik Jones only winning once, the other 3 drivers won 18. If Jones can get more comfortable and win a couple more races I think 20-22 race wins will happen. They are racing the same package on the intermediate tracks and the JGR cars dominated those  races. They did lose Cole Pearn on the 19 but promoted his disciples to lead the team. Also with 2020 being the final year of the car, I'm not sure how much work teams will put in to find speed since most of the work will be null after the season. Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin have a knack to make things happen and Martin Trues Jr. is one of the better drivers on restarts. This season is shaping up well for JGR.

Chase Elliot will win the NASCAR Cup Series. I really wanted to tab Denny Hamlin to win this year but I like the way the Playoffs set up for Chase. Making it to the 3rd round will be key for him, he has won at the Roval, which making the 8 is the hardest part. Once in the 3rd round I think he can do his magic at Martinsville, somewhere he's driven well but has had incidents that aren't his own fault in the past. If he makes the final at Phoenix he stands a much better chance than when the final was at Homestead. It's extremely hard to predict something in November but I think this is the year of the 9 car and Chase Elliot leads the next generation of drivers into the new decade and becomes the face that NASCAR wants him to be. He's already the most popular driver but being a Cup Champion will make him even more relevant in the sport.

That's it for this one, be sure to watch the Daytona 500 on Sunday and hopefully Denny gets his 3rd 500 win. My pick is actually Brad Keselowski, I think he makes the moves at the end and avoids his idiot teammate to get the win. Follow me on twitter @derekbredeson as I'll be filling up my feed with Daytona talk, enjoy the season.