I've done this the last few years, going position by position breaking down the upcoming Super Bowl. I've gone 2-1, having the Saints and Packers and losing last year with the Pats, so let's go to the numbers.
QB Advantage: San Francisco, this one is tough and frankly this whole breakdown is gonna be tough, these 2 teams mirror each other so much, and frankly the biggest difference is at the QB position. Listen to me I sound like Jaws, anyway Kaepernick has the edge on Flacco simply b/c he has the running element. The both throw a great deep ball, they both throw accurate across the middle, they both use their weapons. However, Kaepernick can run the read option and take off. Atlanta limitied Kaepernick but scorched by Gore and James. If your gonna focus on stopping Kaepernick SF will scorch you other ways, if you stop the other ways Kaepernick will scorch you.
RB Advantage: Baltimore, this is really really close, do you like the combo of Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce or the combo of Frank Gore and LeMicheal James. Almost mirrors of each other Gore and Pierce are both downhill punishers, where Rice and James are small and quick. The biggerst advantage Baltimore has here is Rice is a great receiver and he's a down hill punisher as well as being a little quick guy. I think Ray Rice is the difference maker in this game and if Baltimore can get him on the field same time as Pierce they could really be dangerous. FB Leach is also a clear advantage for Baltimore.
WR Advantage: Baltimore, this is so hard, by far the hardest breakdown I've ever done. Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin, and Tandon Doss who's come on under Caldwell vs. Micheal Crabtree and Randy Moss, the 9ers have other guys but nobody at WR who makes a huge impact. I think Anquan Boldin is perfect for this game b/c he's not affraid of anyone and he'll go across the middle on anybody anytime and make plays. Smith can behind anyone and Baltimore likes to take at least 2 shots with him a half. The 49ers are gonna miss Mario Manningham but Crabtree and Kaepernick have some sort of connection, so he's been playing better since the change.
TE Advantage: San Francisco, Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker do more in the running game and passing game than Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson do. In fact Pitta and Dickson are a poor man's Davis and Walker. Have I said how similiar these teams are, this is crazy. Look for Davis to get down the seems, and Walker to make at least 3-4 plays in this game.
OL Advantage: Baltimore, I really can't back this up at all, but Baltimore has a few HOFrs on the line in McKinnie and Birk, maybe in Oher. McKinnie is also fresh since he barely played in the regular season. I don't want to take anything from Joe Staley or Mike Iupati, but once again this is close.
Pass Rushing Advantage: San Francisco, I was gonna do DL and LB but these teams move guys around, hand in the dirt, stand up, so much I figured I'll just do MLB and pass rush. Both teams stuff the run, and the pass rushers are more than just pass rushers. I gotta give SF the advantage here b/c Justin Smith and Aldon Smith get after it. T-Sizzle and Paul Krueger are great as well but Sizzle isn't 100%. Ngata is a great run stuffer but doesn't get to the QB the best him and Justin Smith are a lot a like. These 2 front 7's vs the O's front 5 is gonna be great to watch.
MLB Advantage: San Francisco, this is based soley on play, not on the spiritual advantage Ray Lewis gives Baltimore. Bowman and Willis are amazing, and Ray Lewis and Ellerbe are great. How many times can I say these teams are mirrors of each other. Lewis still has that brace on his arm. I love this game, can we play right now.
Cornerback Advantage: Push, even though Baltimore is without Brandon Carr I say push. If any of these corners can take a guy out of the game, say Graham takes out Crabtree, or Carlos Rogers takes away Boldin than that team will have the true advantage.
Safety Advantage: Baltimore, Ed Reed is the best in the game, and best of the last 15 years. Pollard is liable to concuss or break at least 1 guys leg. I like what SF has in the back end but their not Reed and Pollard.
Kicker Advantage: Baltimore, Justin Tucker doesn't have the yips, David Akers has the yips.
Punter Advantage: who cares, Andy Lee and Sam Koch need to make sure we don't know their names by the end of the game.
Kick/Punt Returns Advantage: San Francisco, Jacoby Jones and Ed Reed can break them but Ted Ginn Jr. can break them better.
Coach Advantage: PUSH, you can't give either guy an advantage here, both Harbaugh's are great. Only thing I'll give Baltimore is Jim Caldwell calling plays is way better than when they had Cam Cameron.
Spiritual Leader Advantage: Baltimore, your a fool to not think Ray Lewis is a difference maker more than just his game play. The guy has the Ravens on some sort of high/fear of letting him down complex and they are playing on a different level than what they were doing in the regular season.
Final Score Baltimore 6 San Francisco 5, I honestly don't know who to pick. Every year I've done this I've picked the team who didn't have the advantage. I really don't want to pick this game, but I'll go with San Francisco 28 Baltimore 27. I have nothing to back that up, if I were a betting man I guess that means I pick Baltimore (+3.5). So there I pick both teams, man did I hedge my bet there what a pussy. See you next week for the Super Diary in the mean time follow me on twitter @derekbredeson.
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